Two years ago this fall, the challenger candidate, Reverend Raphael Warnock, mopped the debate room floor with his opponent, junior incumbent U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler. Hers was a wooden and flat performance, appearing to recite lines from a script not connecting with any audience.
What a difference some confidence and apparent conviction in a set core of values can make.
Herschel Walker’s recent debate answers were not always consistent with his prior stated positions, and the brandishing of his Cobb County Sheriffs’ Posse badge was clumsy and tentative, but on whole he showed us the same face, smile and ease with the space he occupies, as well as his beliefs that hard work, commitment and being raised well by loving parents in Wrightsville, Georgia, really does matter.
Walker appeared genuine.
He is probably smart to stick with the one debate, but he didn’t embarrass himself.
And where Warnock appeared to sweat a bit and repeat lines about his honor and appreciation to be holding the positions he has, that script started to ring hollow by the fourth and fifth recitation. Walker’s mission was to give his base reasons to still show up. He did.
Warnock had the easier job and the technically superior performance, as well as more studied responses. But it still didn’t really feel like a win for him.
In close contests, trends, momentum and what is happening at the top of the ticket all matter considerably.
And there, incumbent Governor Brian Kemp is steadily widening his lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams.
Since the first week of September, there have been 13 publicly released polls on the Governor’s race. Kemp has bested each, and with one exception his showing has been 50% or better.
This once-close contest only twice showed Abrams within the margin of error to even tie Kemp.
The Atlanta Journal & Constitution’s polling unit show Kemp widening his lead to 10% over Abrams, who even carrying all the undecided vote (which will split), and flipping Libertarians, shows numbers no longer portending a long night in the Governor›s race. This is trending toward significant benefits down ballot for most every race for Georgia›s constitutional offices, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is polling to outperform every other Republican on the ballot (in terms of percentage of vote).
Since 2016, as Georgia Democrats surged into majorities again across the core counties in metro Atlanta, more ballots were cast in advance of election day. Democrats have won advance voting and absentee voting by healthy margins since, and during 2016, 2018 and 2020, more ballots were cast prior to election day than on election day itself.
In each case, the GOP won the votes on election day. But thus far in these midterms, in part driven by logistical changes within the Georgia Election Integrity Act and including record registration and turnout in the General Primary and Primary Runoff, more traditional Georgia voting patterns have reset.
Advance voting dropped to 45 percent of the total vote, with 4 percent cast via absentee, versus the high doubledigits during the height of the pandemic in 2020. With advance and absentee voting now underway, the respective parties will turn to turnout.
Micro-targeting of voters with precision robocalls, door-todoor canvassing in key precincts, late-breaking and audience-specific endorsements, as well as flooding your phone with texts to remind you to make it to the polls, will in some respects replace the on-air TV and radio bombardment, which will continue but become less impactful. From Monday, Oct. 17, through the Friday prior to election day, and then roaring up again on election day, each party and their ticket- topping candidates will use every tool at their disposal to activate their vote and voters.
It often is said that it’s all over now but for the shouting, when the reality is that it is almost all over but the voting. As with the U.S. Senate runoffs in Georgia on Jan. 5, 2021, when roughly 400,000 GOP voters stayed home, and the Senate majority became Democratic, several thousand disaffected evangelicals sitting out this Senate contest to send Walker or the Georgia GOP a message could well be decisive for Warnock.
Polling and conditions on the ground favor the GOP slate, yet it will be smart moves and execution in the areas listed above, as well as the all-too-ethereal momentum which will carry the day Nov. 8th.
Best of luck to all those who choose to enter the arena. Vote your conscience, but please, vote.